Global expert assessment of the economic damages from climate change

Estimates of climate damages inform decisions on mitigation and adaptation, loss and damage as well as climate liability assessments, and regulatory analysis. Yet climate damage projections remain widely dispersed, while methodological and data limitations make a comprehensive assessment of damages challenging. Here, we conduct a global expert assessment of the economic damages from climate change. Using an interactive graphical elicitation format, we will combine aggregate assessments with a bottom-up approach to distinguish instantaneous from persistent damages and market from non-market damages. Further dimensions that we elicit include the role of adaptation, the aggregation or heterogeneity of damages, as well as uncertainty and confidence. We will use these responses to construct aggregate expert damage functions, map out the degree of consensus and disagreement, and analyse the underlying drivers of expert disagreement. The results will allow us to disentangle the role of instantaneous versus persistent damages for damage projections, as well as the relative importance of market versus non-market damages. By making expert judgements explicit within a consistent and comparable framework, to reveal both the scope for consensus and remaining disagreements, the study will provide a new reference point for climate damage assessments.

Recommended citation: Drupp, M.A., Schaumann, F., Auffhammer, M., Bosetti, V., Dietz, S., Hänsel, M.C., Howard, P., Moore, F.C., Piontek, F., Rising, J., Traeger, C., Wenz, L. (in progress).